基于Vensim仿真的城市绿色交通发展问题研究  

Development of Green Transportation Based on Vensim Simulation

作　　者：魏贤鹏 朝鲁[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学文理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《综合运输》2016年第8期57-61,共5页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会资助项目(11571008)

摘　　要：随着城市化速度不断加快,交通污染问题越来越严重,已经影响到人们的正常生活。如何制定交通政策,营造健康无污染的城市环境是实现可持续发展的必然要求。本文考虑到交通系统结构复杂,变量众多,在充分分析各个变量因果关系的基础上,建立了城市绿色交通系统动力学模型。以上海市为例进行仿真,发现机动车保有量的增长是城市交通污染气体排放的主要原因。最后提出城市绿色交通发展模式合理化建议。At present,with the accelerating of urbanization,the traffic pollution problem has become more and more serious,which has affected people＇s normal life.To make the sustainable development of transport policy,and to create a healthy and non-polluted urban environment is the wish of every citizen.In this paper,considering the complex structure of the transportation system with many variables,we have analyzed the causal relationship between the various variables and established the urban green transportation system model based on the dynamic theory.Taking Shanghai city as an example,the simulation results show that the increase of vehicle ownership is the main reason for the increase of urban traffic pollution.At last,we put forward reasonable suggestions for the development of urban green transportation.

关 键 词：城市绿色交通 系统动力学 交通政策 VENSIM 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]