考虑集团化经营特征的企业财务困境风险预警研究  

Research on Financial Distress Early Warning for Enterprises with the Collectivization Management Characteristics

作　　者：赵可[1] 鲍新中[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100049 [2]北京联合大学管理学院,北京100101

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第16期102-111,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:基于第三方风险动态监控平台的知识产权质押融资模式研究(14BGL034);北京社科基金重点项目:知识产权质押融资风险形成机理与风险动态共担机制设计(15JGA003);北京市教委市属高校创新能力提升计划项目:北京市知识产权商用化运营机制及政策研究(项目编号PXM2016_014209_000018_00202730_FCG)

摘　　要：企业的集团化经营特征将会对财务困境风险产生重要的影响.在分析集团化经营企业财务风险特征的基础上,考虑集团内部交叉持股复杂度、关联交易程度和相互担保程度对集团化经营企业财务状况的影响,使用KMV模型计算集团化经营企业的违约距离,构建了全新的集团化经营企业财务困境预警的评价体系.并运用Logistic回归模型对集团化经营企业财务困境进行预警.实证结果表明该指标体系与模型具有可行性和有效性.Enterprise collectivization management features will have an important influence to the risk of financial distress. Based on the analysis of the collectivized business enterprise financial risk characteristics, internal cross-ownership complexity degree, associated trade and mutual guarantee degree is considered about the influence on collectivize management enter- prise financial risk. the KMV model is then used to calculate default distance of collectivization management enterprise, to build a financial early-warning evaluation system. Logistic regression model is then applied to simulate the collectivization management enterprise financial distress early warning. The empirical results show the feasibility and validity of the model.

关 键 词：财务困境预警 集团化经营 违约距离 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]