中国碳金融市场风险度量研究  

A Research on the Risk Measurement of China's Carbon Financial Market

作　　者：王婷婷[1] 张亚利[2] 王淼晗[3] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学统计学院 [2]华侨大学数量经济研究院 [3]德勤华永会计师事务所

出　　处：《金融论坛》2016年第9期57-68,共12页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"大数据与统计学理论的发展研究"(13&ZD148)的资助

摘　　要：本文以中国碳金融市场5个碳排放权交易所(北京、上海、深圳、天津、湖北)的收益率为研究对象,采用不同的分位数回归模型对碳金融市场风险水平进行度量与实证检验。研究结果表明:相较于CAVia R族模型,QAR-GARCH模型更适合对中国碳金融市场风险的刻画;中国各地碳金融市场均处于发展阶段,尚未成熟;就中国5大碳市场发展成熟度的比较而言,上述两种模型均显示深圳市场的发展成熟度较高,湖北成熟度最低。In this paper, the return rate of China＇s 5 Carbon Emission Exchanges （Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Hubei） are used as samples for research, and the author of the paper presents a measurement and an empirical examination of the risk levels of carbon financial markets based on the various quantile regression models. The conclusions show that, compared with the CAViaR family model, the QAR-GARCH model is more suitable for the characterization of the risks of Chinese carbon financial markets; the Chinese carbon financial markets are in a developing stage and not yet mature; comparing the development maturity of the Chinese 5 Carbon Emission Exchanges, the above two models show that the development maturity of Shenzhen market is the highest, and that of Hubei market is the lowest.

关 键 词：碳金融市场 碳排放权交易所 风险度量 CAVIAR模型 QAR—GARCH模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学]