2016年上半年国内外奶业市场与贸易形势及展望  

Dairy Markets and Trade Situations at Home and Abroad in the First Half of 2016 and Their Prospects

作　　者：王东杰[1] 董晓霞[1] 张永恩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第8期15-18,共4页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：2016年农业部专项"农业信息监测预警";中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII-01)

摘　　要：2016年上半年,国内市场原料奶收购价持续下降,鲜奶和奶粉零售价保持稳定,国际原料奶价格和乳制品批发价格呈双双下跌态势。1—6月,国内乳制品进口同比明显增加,出口同比有所减少。其中,鲜奶和酸奶进口增加最为迅速,奶粉进口有所恢复。展望未来,伴随主产国产量的调整,原料奶价格有望企稳,但短期内仍将在低位徘徊。受生育政策调整和国内外价差驱动,乳制品进口将继续增加。In the first half of 2016, the raw milk purchase price kept falling in domestic market, and the retail prices of fresh milk and milk powder remained stable, while the wholesale prices of international raw milk and dairy products fell. From Jan. to Jun., China＇s dairy products imports increased significantly compared to the same period of the previous year, while the exports declined significantly. Among them, the imports of fresh milk and yogurt increased most quickly and milk powder imports recovered. Looking into the future, with the production adjustment of major producers, raw milk price will be stabilized, but remain at the low level in the short term. Driven by the fertility policy adjustment and milk price gap at home and abroad, dairy imports will continue increasing.

关 键 词：原料奶 乳制品 市场价格 价差 贸易 展望 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6