地铁大线网条件下乘客SPSL路径选择模型  

Passengers' SPSL Route Choice Model in a Large Scaled Metro Network

作　　者：张永生[1] 姚恩建[1] 刘莎莎[1] 李斌斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《中国铁道科学》2016年第5期138-144,共7页China Railway Science

基　　金：国家"九七三"计划项目(2012CB725403);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2016YJS066)

摘　　要：针对现有地铁乘客路径选择模型忽视路径重复和OD对尺度效应的问题,通过分析地铁网络中OD对尺度效应,构建地铁大线网条件下乘客SPSL(Scaled Path Sized Logit)路径选择模型。首先,将乘客对路径效用感知误差的Gumbel分布的尺度系数推导为OD对间最短乘车时间的函数,以反映乘客对路径效用的感知误差随OD对尺度增大而增大的规律;其次,将除乘车时间之外的其他因素(换乘次数、换乘时间、舒适程度等)乘以尺度系数的倒数,用以表示随着乘车时间的增加,其他因素对路径效用的影响增大;最后,给出表征路径重复程度对路径效用影响的修正公式,并建立单位换乘次数与乘车时间的替代关系,实现换乘次数和乘车时间对乘客路径选择偏好影响的对比。基于广州地铁调查数据标定模型的参数,验证SPSL模型的优越性和有效性;基于SPSL模型进行换乘量的估算并与其他既有模型对比,结果显示基于SPSL模型估算换乘量的误差最小。The conventional route choice models for metro passengers were usually developed without considering the problem of route overlapping and the scale effect of OD.By analyzing the scale effect of OD in metro network,an SPSL（Scaled Path Sized Logit）route choice model for passengers in a large scaled metro network was proposed.Firstly,supposing that passenger perception error of route utility followed an independent and identical Gumbel distribution for the same OD pair,the scale parameter was presented as a function of the shortest in-vehicle travel time for the OD pair,which indicated that passengers＇perception variance of route utility increased with the growth of OD scale.Secondly,except in-vehicle travel time,other factors（number of transfers,transfer time and comfort degree）were multiplied by the inverse of Gumbel scale parameter,which reflected that the impacts of other factors on route utility enlarged with the increase of in-vehicle travel time.Thirdly,the impact of route overlapping degree on route utility was formulated and the comparison between the impacts of in-vehicle travel time and number of transfers on route choice behaviors was provided based on substitutional relation.Finally,the models were estimated based on the surveyed data in Guangzhou Metro whose estimations have demonstrated the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed SPSL model. Meanwhile,the models are applied to predict transfer passengers＇volume and the results based on SPSL model also show the smaller forecasting error than others.

关 键 词：路径选择行为 客流 路径重复 换乘量 地下铁道 大线网 

分 类 号：U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U239.5