城市快速路交通事件影响范围预测模型  

The range forecast model of traffic incidents impact on urban expressway

作　　者：肖恢翚[1,2] 陆建[1,2] 邱红桐 李亚平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省城市智能交通重点实验室(东南大学),南京210096 [2]现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心,南京210096 [3]公安部交通管理科研所,江苏无锡214151

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2016年第9期54-59,共6页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51178108;51478110)

摘　　要：为研究交通事件对城市快速路交通流的影响,在对MCTM模型进行改进的基础上,建立快速路交通事件影响范围预测模型.该模型针对城市快速路交通流的亚稳态现象,模拟亚稳态区域的交通流状态;同时考虑交通事件对元胞主要特征参数的影响,并结合事件发生的不同位置,对元胞设置进行调整;最后提出事件影响长度的概念,并将其作为交通事件影响范围的评价指标.以北京市局部道路网为研究对象,结合交通事件的相关数据,对该模型进行了参数标定和实例分析.结果表明,仿真数据的变化趋势与实测数据基本一致,且误差在可接受范围内.模型能清晰地反映出不同时刻各个路段的交通流状态,可有效地确定城市快速路交通事件的影响范围.To study the impact of traffic incidents on urban expressway, the forecasting model of traffic incident influence is established on MCTM model. With regard to the metastable phenomenon of urban expressway traffic flow, the traffic flow state of metastable region is simulated in this model. Besides, the impact of traffic incidents on the main traffic now features of the ceils is considered and the setting of the cells is adjusted with the location of traffic incidents. And the length of the incident is selected as an evaluation indicator of traffic incident influence. Finally, based on the traffic incident data of Beijing partial road network, the model parameters are calibrated and the influence of one traffic incident is analyzed. The results show that the trends of the simulation data are basically the same with the measured data and the error is within an acceptable range. This model can clearly reflect the state of the traffic flow at different times of the individual sections, and it can determine the traffic incident influence of urban expressway effectively.

关 键 词：MCTM模型 快速路 交通事件 亚稳态 影响范围 元胞 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]