安全变道概率条件下高速公路立交最小净距研究  

Minimum net distance between highway interchanges under probability of safety lane-changing

作　　者：崔洪军[1] 贾俊波[1] 李霞[1] 李霖[1] 马新卫 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院 [2]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第9期79-84,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51678212);河北省自然科学基金资助(E2013202228)

摘　　要：为探究安全变道概率条件下高速公路立交最小净距,将相邻立交净间距分为向内侧变道段、标志识别段和向外侧变道段3部分。结合动力学和速度一致性原理,分析安全变道时的临界车头间距;运用概率论和交通流理论研究车辆变道概率组合特性。综合考虑车道数、服务交通量、设计速度和限制速度等条件,建立高速公路立交净距与安全变道概率关系模型。研究表明,安全变道概率阈值为0.95时,一级服务水平下不同车道数和设计速度的高速公路立交最小安全净距分别为:1 800 m(2,3车道,100 km/h)、2 200 m(2,3车道,120 km/h)、2 350 m(4车道,120 km/h),安全变道概率随立交净距的增大而呈阶梯型增长。The research paper was aimed at exploring minimum net distance between highway interchanges under probability of safety lane-changing, and the distance was divided into three segments, including medial lane-changing distance, advance guide sign-recognizing distance and outside lane-changing distance. Dynamics and speed consistency principle were used to analyze critical headway under safety lane-changing condition. The combination characteristic of lane-changing probability was obtained according to probability theory and traffic flow theory. Considering lanes number, service volume, designed speed and speed limit, a model was built for the relationship between the net distance between highway interchanges and probability of safety lane-changing. Research shows that for the probability threshold being 0.95, at the first service level, the minimum net distances are respectively 1 800 m（2 or 3 lanes, 100 km/h）, 2200m（2 or 3 lanes, 120 km/h）, 2350m（4 lanes, 120 km/h）, and that the probability presents a ladder-like increase with the increase of net distance between interchanges.

关 键 词：立交最小净距 概率论 交通流理论 L-P模型 安全变道概率 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]