北京外国人入境旅游市场拟合预测模型与影响  

On fitting &forcast model and influence factors of foreigner inbound tourism market in Beijing

作　　者：王润[1,2] 余赛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京农学院园林学院,北京102206 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《北京农学院学报》2016年第4期107-112,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Agriculture

基　　金：科技创新服务能力建设城乡生态北京实验室项目(PXM2016_014207_000003)

摘　　要：【目的】入境游客量反映一个国家或地区旅游发展综合实力,探寻入境旅游规模和影响因素。【方法】选取北京外国人入境旅游市场作为研究对象,将分月十年间外国人入境游客时间序列数据进行模型拟合,应用宏观经济数据去解释变化原因。【结果】ARIMA模型和三角函数模型均得到很好的拟合结果,能够得出可靠的预测值,两个模型在趋势解释方面也各有所长。通过曲线变化归纳出四个影响因素,并通过统计数据检验。【结论】入境游客量呈现周期性、年度性增减的变换。在影响因素中,目的地国经济发展以及重大事件对游客量影响是显著的。近年来北京经历的奥运会、金融危机、SARS、雾霾等事件,对北京外国人入境游客量产生了或正或负的影响,有些得到证实和测算,而有些因素影响有待进一步研究,最后对2012年之后游客量的持续下跌原因进行假设。Inbound tourism volume is a useful indicator to measure the tourism development level of a country or a district.As a result,inbound tourism market plays an important role in tourism industry.This paper aims to research the varied time series of inbound tourism,and find out rules of Beijing inbound tourism and the affecting factors by macro-economic data.Three models were chosen to fit the tourist curves.ARIMA model and Trigonometric function model can be used to fit and forecast tourism volume,and have their own advantages.Then four factors were summarized which may affect the time series data,and they are world economic trends,exchange rate,the destination country＇s economic development and major events.Other scholars have confirmed the impact of major events,such as SARS,Beijing Olympic Games,financial crisis and some environment problems.However,Beijing fog of new economic normal should be responsible for the decrease of tourism volume after 2012,and it＇s also a problem to settle.

关 键 词：入境 旅游 时间序列模型 ARIMA模型 三角函数模型 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]