基于天气干扰的航班延误风险分级研究  

Research on Flight Delay Classification Based on the Weather Interference

作　　者：缪晨晖 朱星辉[1] 高强[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《中国民航飞行学院学报》2017年第1期24-27,32,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71201081);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(NS2014071)

摘　　要：航班过站衔接时间是一把"双刃剑",宽松的过站时间,有助于吸收航班延误,降低不正常航班成本,但是影响飞机平均日利用率及运营效率。因此,为设置合理的航班衔接时间,从影响航班运营的天气因素出发,建立相应的季节性指标体系,按照冬春和夏秋季分别确定各项指标权重,并运用模糊综合评价法对天气因素导致的航班延误进行分级。最后,以国内某航空公司航班串进行实例分析。结果表明,基于天气干扰的季节性指标来评估航班延误并以此为依据设置航班过站衔接时间,可以缓解航班延误的传播,从而降低航班延误。Flight station connection time is a ＂double-edged sword＂.Loose standing time is beneficial to absorb the flight delay and reduces the abnormal flight cost. But it affects the average daily efficiency and operating efficiency of the flight. In order to set up reasonable flight station connection time, the main weather factors leading to flight delays are analyzed. Besides, the corresponding seasonal index system is established to determine the weight of each index according to the periods of winter-spring and summer-fall respectively. This paper also combines fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to grade the delays caused by weather factors. Computational results obtained from a domestic airline flight loop show that evaluating flight de.lays based on seasonal weather interference index and on this basis setting flight station connection time can relieve the spread of flight delays, so as to reduce delays.

关 键 词：航班延误 天气干扰 季节性指标 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：F562.6[经济管理—产业经济]