一种基于雷达外推与数值模式的动态融合降水概率预报方法  

Dynamic Blending Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Method based on Radar Extrapolation and Numerical Weather Prediction

作　　者：薛峰 王兴[2] 苗春生[2] 吴双[2] 张琳焓[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心预报系统开放实验室,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第4期27-33,共7页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：基金项目：基金项目国家自然科学基金项目（41276033）;南京气象雷达开放实验室研究基金（BJG201105）.

摘　　要：提出一种动态权重的降水概率融合预报方法。首先建立一个适用于权重分配的评分模型，对基于雷达光流外推的降水概率预报和基于数值模式经反射率换算后的降水概率预报的预报准确率分别加以评估，再根据各自在不同预报时效的评分，动态地分配两种预报方法在不同预报时效的权重。实验部分通过Brier等评分表明，融合后各个预报时效的预报都表现出与雷达外推或数值模式相近甚至更高的技术评分。A new method for probabilistic precipitation forecasts with dynamic weights is proposed. Firstly, a scoring model for weight distribution should be established to evaluate the forecast accuracy calculated from radar extrapolation and numerical model prediction. Secondly, according to the scores of different lead times, the weight of two kinds of forecasting methods is dynamically allocated in different forecasting time. In the experimental part, the Brier and other ratings show that the prediction of each forecast time is similar to the radar extrapolation or numerical model, and even higher technical score.

关 键 词：融合预报 降水概率预报 雷达外推 光流法 数值模式 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]