未确知测度在海上溢油应急能力评估中的应用  

Application of Evaluation of Oil Spillage Response Capacity Based on Unascertained Measure

作　　者：李伟峰[1] 肖中贤 史国友[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]山东海事局,山东青岛266002

出　　处：《船海工程》2016年第A01期253-256,261,共5页Ship & Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家863项目（2009AA045003）;中央高校基本科研业务费专项经费资助（3132015009）

摘　　要：随着水上溢油风险的不断提高，重特大水上溢油污染事故的频繁发生，溢油污染造成的损害日益严重，国际、国内高度重视溢油应急防备和反应工作。一旦发生重大溢油事故，将给海洋生态环境带来很大的损失，严重影响到沿海区域经济的可持续发展。对影响海上溢油应急能力的主要因素进行分析，基于为确知测度理论，建立了海上溢油应急能力评估数学模型，并以山东海事局辖区溢油应急能力实际情况为例进行验证，计算结果与实际情况相符。With the continuous increasing of the risk of oil spillage upon water, some major water pollution accidents caused by oil spillage happen frequently and the damage caused by oil spillage pollution is becoming worse and worse, which makes in- ternational and domestic government pay more attention on the emergency precautions and response of oil spillage. Once the major oil spillage accident happening, a lot of loss will be brought to Marine ecological environment and seriously influences will be made to the sustainable development of coastal area economy. Based on the unascertained Measurement theory, the main factors affecting emergency handling capacity of oil spillage were analysed, and the assessment mathematic model of oil spillage emergency response capacity was established, the response capacity was calculated by the example of Shandong MSA, The calculation re- sult fits with reality.

关 键 词：未确知测度 溢油 应急能力 评估模型 

分 类 号：U675.96[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]