实际电力系统状态估计可信度评价  

Reliability Assessment of State Estimation in Practical Power Systems

作　　者：郭烨[1] 张伯明[2,3] 吴文传[2,3] 孙宏斌[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]康奈尔大学电气与计算机工程学院,美国伊萨卡14850 [2]清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市100084 [3]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,清华大学,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2017年第1期155-160,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228206);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2014M550727);国家杰出青年基金资助项目(51025725)~~

摘　　要：电力系统状态估计是能量管理系统的关键基础环节。实际电力系统的真实状态无法获得,因此对状态估计结果的可信度进行评估就非常重要。文中分析了广泛使用的合格率指标存在的问题,提出了一种基于契合度和零注入失配量的状态估计可信度评价准则。通过9节点系统的示例,具体说明了传统合格率指标的不足及所提出的可信度评价准则的合理性,并通过118节点系统的大量数值试验从统计意义上证明了所提出的评价准则的优越性。通过分析一个实际系统案例,说明了合格率指标在现场存在的问题和研究的实际意义。State estimation is a crucial and basic function in energy management systems. The true state of a real power system is unavailable and it is therefore of cardinal importance to assess the reliability of the results from state estimators. Drawbacks of the widely used acceptance rate index are elaborated, and a new index to assess the reliability of state estimation results is proposed, which is based on the consistency rate and mismatches in zero injections. A simple 9-node system is employed to illustrate drawbacks of acceptance rate and advantages of the proposed index. Extensive simulations on a 118-node system have statistically demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed index. Finally, an instance from actual power systems is used to show the problems of acceptance rate and the practical value of this research.

关 键 词：状态估计 可信度评估 交叉熵 零注入 合格率 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]