动态预测视角下产业系统碳排放强度减排压力分析——基于低碳发展弹性系数的研究  

The Pressure Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction in the Industrial System from a Dynamic Forecasting Perspective— Based on the Elastic Coefficient of Low Carbon Development

作　　者：王万军[1] 路正南[1,2] 朱东旦 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,博士研究生212013 [2]江苏大学京江学院,院长212013

出　　处：《江苏社会科学》2017年第1期32-37,共6页Jiangsu Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于非期望产出率熵变的产业系统减排机理及碳减排差别责任研究"(71173094)阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文利用2001-2014年我国产业部门相关数据,基于ARIMA模型,对2020年我国碳排放强度进行了预测,预测结果显示2020年中国实现减排目标的概率较大。在预测结果的基础上,利用低碳发展弹性系数计算了既定目标下,我国具体产业部门的减排压力,结论是:6种低碳发展情形下,完全脱钩发展、基本脱钩发展和弱脱钩发展的17个产业部门,在碳配额后,碳减排压力相对较小,而弱联结发展、联结发展以及超联结发展的22个产业部门,碳减排压力较大。Based on the ARIMA model and data from China＇s industrial sectors during 2001-2014, this paper predicts China＇s carbon emissions intensity in 2020. The predicted result is： China is very likely to achieve the target of emission reduction by 2020. What＇ s more, the pressure to reduce emissions for specific industry sector is calculated with the elastic coefficient, and the findings are： with the requirement of carbon quota, there are six types of low carbon development. For 17 industrial sectors which adopt complete decoupling development, basic decoupling development or weak decoupling development, the pressure of carbon emission reduction is relatively low, while for other 22 sectors which adopt joint development, weak joint development or hyper-joint development, the pressure is high.

关 键 词：产业系统 碳排放强度 目标减排 ARIMA模型 低碳发展弹性系数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]