基于GM(1,1)模型的恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测  

A Study of GM(1,1) model in the prediction of the mortality of malignant tumors

作　　者：马尉瑶[1] MA Yu-yao.(Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Liaoyang City, Liaoyang 111000, Liaoning, CHINA)

机构地区：[1]辽阳市疾病预防控制中心,辽宁辽阳111000

出　　处：《海南医学》2017年第1期155-156,共2页Hainan Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的了解辽阳市辽阳县恶性肿瘤死亡情况,介绍GM(1,1)模型预测辽阳市辽阳县恶性肿瘤死亡率。方法收集辽阳市辽阳县2008-2015年恶性肿瘤死亡数据,并应用GM(1,1)模型对其进行动态预测。结果 GM(1,1)预测模型为x_(k+1)^(0)=(x_1^(0)-μ/α)e^(-αk)=6315.22^(0.023Ik)-6177.06,预测精度优,预测2016年和2017年辽阳市辽阳县恶性肿瘤死亡率分别为173.50/10万和177.55/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型能够用于恶性肿瘤死亡率预测。Objective To comprehend the mortality of malignant tumors in Liaoyang County and to predict it with GM（1,1） model. Methods The data of the mortality of malignant tumors in Liaoyang County from 2008 to 2015 were collected and predicted with GM（1,1） model. Results It showed the GM（1,1） prediction model was x_（k＋1）^（0）=（x_1^（0）-μ/α）e^（-αk）=6315.22^（0.023Ik）-6177.06, and the model was advanced by the precision-test. The predictive values of the mortality of malignant tumors were 173.50/100 000 and 177.55/100 000 respectively during 2016 and 2017. Conclusion The GM（1,1）model can be applied to predict the mortality of malignant tumors.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 GM(1 1) 模型 预测 死亡率 

分 类 号：R730.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]