2016—2030年中国城乡义务教育师资需求预测  

Research on 2016—2030 China's Urban and Rural Compulsory Education Teacher Demand Forecast

作　　者：秦玉友[1] 宗晓华[2] QIN Yu-you ZONG Xiao-hua(China Institute of Rural Education Development, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China School of Education,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地东北师范大学中国农村教育发展研究院,吉林长春130024 [2]南京大学教育经济与管理研究所,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《东北师大学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第1期8-21,共14页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学重点课题(AFA150007)

摘　　要：从数量上看,师资需求是在校学生数与生师比的函数。2016—2030年义务教育师资需求预测要基于在校生数预测与生师比研究两个工作完成。在义务教育进入全面普及时期,在校生数量往往大于学龄人口数量,预测在校生数量要考虑学龄人口数量变化与毛入学率这个参数。在假定课程开设量基本相同与师资可以充裕供给的情况下,生师比的确定直接受到学生数量与班级规模的影响。政策上确定班级规模受到人口分布、经济发展水平、班级规模对教育质量影响的认识等多重因素的影响。在科学预测在校学生数以及充分考虑政策上的可行性、合理性确定生师比之后,可以预测义务教育师资需求,并基于现有教师规模与年龄结构,预测在不同年段需要补充的师资。The teacher demand is a function of the number of students in schools and the pupil-teacher ratio in terms of quantity. It is necessary to forecast 2016-2030 China＇s compulsory education teacher demand based on the forecast of the number of students in schools and the pupil-teacher ratio. In the period of universal compulsory education, the number of students in schools is often greater than the number of school-age population. To forecast the number of students in schools needs to take the number of school-age population and the the gross enrollment rate as parameters. If courses in different schools is basically the same and teacher supply is sufficient, then the pupil-teacher ratio is directly determined and influenced by the number of students and the class size. Class size Regulations are determined by multiple factors such as population density, economic development level, the cognition of the impact of class size on the quality of education. After the scientific prediction of the number of students in schools and the full consideration of the feasibility and rationality of pupil-teacher ratio regulation, it can be done to predict 2016-2030 China＇s compulsory education teacher demand and teacher supplement in different years based on the existing size and age structure.

关 键 词：中国 城乡 义务教育 师资 预测 

分 类 号：G40[文化科学—教育学原理]