数学方法预测全面二孩政策下我国人口增长问题  

Mathematic Method to Predict Population Growth in China under the Universal Two-Child Policy

作　　者：张立英[1] 贾菊敏 崔宜萌 方淑慧[2] 徐赫骏 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学,山西太原030006 [2]沈阳建筑大学,辽宁沈阳110168 [3]哈尔滨工业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《科技广场》2017年第1期150-153,共4页Science Mosaic

摘　　要：我国已出台"全面二孩"人口新政策。基于此政策,本文通过客观数据建立数学模型,模拟出全面二孩政策对于我国人口发展趋势的影响。首先利用偏微分方程模型,预测出人口会在2020—2025年左右达到一个峰值,从结果网络结构图来看,我国男女生育比例始终保持在0.48左右并呈现出逐年下降的趋势。之后对全面二孩政策进行单一因素的灰色预测,得出人口增长方程。结果表明,全面二孩政策会对我国人口起到一个有效地刺激性作用,仅考虑其一项因素时,2050年我国人口会较之前结论增加2.3亿左右。China has introduced a new policy of ＂universal two children＂. Based on this policy, a mathematical model was established through objective data to simulate the impact of the policy on population trends in China. First of all, this paper, using the partial differential equation model, predicts that the population will reach a peak around 2020-2025; the results from the network structure show that the proportion of male and female fertility has remained at around 0.48 with a downward trend. Then the gray forecast of the single factor of the universal two-child policy is made and the population growth equation is obtained. The results show that the universal two-child policy will stimu- late effectively the population of China. When considering only one factor, China＇s population will increase by about 230 million in 2050 compared with the previous conclusions.

关 键 词：全面二孩 人口增长 偏微分方程 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]