河北省卫生人力资源的灰色预测  

Application of gray model to predict health human resource in Hebei province

作　　者：高霞[1] 唐龙妹[1] 刘斯静[2] 闫丽娜[1] 张晓琳[1] 牛玉杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,石家庄050017 [2]河北医科大学期刊社 [3]河北医科大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学教研室

出　　处：《医药论坛杂志》2016年第12期1-3,7,共4页Journal of Medical Forum

基　　金：河北省卫生厅青年科技课题(20090048);“河北省卫生计生事业发展十三五规划”项目资助

摘　　要：目的预测河北省卫生人力资源的情况,为河北省医疗卫生方针和政策的制定提供参考。方法依据2008—2014年河北省卫生人力资源相关数据,应用灰色预测模型预测河北省不同类型卫生人员需求量。结果预测2015年—2020年河北省的卫生人员量,均呈现逐年上升趋势。模型预测效果均优。结论河北省不同类型卫生人力资源在未来几年都呈现增长态势,可为政府合理科学配置全省的卫生人力资源提供参考。Objective To explore the application of gray prediction model in predicting the medical and health institutions beds in Hebei province and provide reference for establishing health planning for Hebei province. Methods To forecast the demand for different types of health personnel in Hebei province with mathematical statistics modeling by gray prediction model according to the data from 2008 to 2014. Results To use the model,the health personnel demand of different types in Hebei province rises year by year from 2015 to 2020. The prediction models are optimal.Conclusion The way to forecast the health personnel demand of different types in Hebei province by Mathematical modeling is useful and needs to research in further.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源 医疗需求 人口增长 数学建模 灰色相关 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]