基于改进因子的客运量灰色预测方法及其应用  

Prediction Method for Passenger Volume Based on Grey System With Improvement Factors

作　　者：陶涛[1] 李金山[1] 张伟伟[1] 吴海俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100028

出　　处：《综合运输》2017年第4期45-48,85,共5页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：基于国家政策、地方政策等方面的影响,对灰色系统理论进行了改进,在灰色系统计算的解中加入改进因子,提出了一种基于改进因子的客运量灰色预测方法,并通过加入节点重要度,将市域客运量分配到各个主要车站,最终得到规划年目标城市的客运站客运规模。通过对贵阳市客运总量的核算,证明了提出的改进算法的有效性,并且利用节点重要度,计算得到了贵阳市2020年各主要客运站的客运规模。基于贵阳市各主要客运站的客运规模以及重要程度,通过引入新的思路,对主要客运的布局、功能进行规划,最终得到了贵阳市2020年公路客运枢纽布局规划。In this paper, by considering the influence of national policy, an improvement of the grey prediction method with improvement factors is proposed to predict passenger traffic volume. By adding node important degree, urban passenger traffic volume is assigned to each of the main station, and finally the planning goal in urban passenger station passenger scale is given. Through the calculation of the total amount of passenger traffic in Guiyang City, it is proved that the proposed algorithm is effective. By using node importance in Guiyang, the passenger volume of the main station in Guiyang is given. Finally, the allocation plan of the main station in Guiyang is given.

关 键 词：客运量预测 灰色预测 节点重要度 客运枢纽规划 枢纽衔接规划 

分 类 号：U492.413[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]