非寿险准备金评估的确定性模型比较研究  

A Comparative Study on Deterministic Models of Non-life Insurance Reserves Evaluation

作　　者：闫春[1] 李亚琪[1] 陈祥辉[1] YAN Chun LI Ya-qi CHEN Xiang-hui(College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Chin)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学数学与系统科学学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2017年第3期286-290,共5页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61502280);国家自然科学基金面上项目(61472228);山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2014FM009);青岛市应用基础研究计划项目(青年专项)(14-2-4-55-jch);山东科技大学研究生教育创新计划项目(KDYC14016)

摘　　要：确定性准备金评估方法是非寿险实务中最常用的准备金计提方法,其显著特点是原理简单,使用方便。对常见的一些确定性准备金评估模型进行了综合对比和分析;从数据基础、假设条件和适用范围3个方面入手分析了不同确定性模型之间的联系与区别;并以链梯法为基准模型,找到了链梯法与B-F模型、S-B模型、案均赔款模型以及期望赔付率模型的结构关系;给出了在非寿险实务中选择准备金评估模型的一些建议,并做了实证分析。Deterministic reserve valuation method is the most common method of reserve calculation in non-life insurance practice, which is characterized by its simple principle and convenience. Some of the deterministic reserve evaluation models were compared and analyzed comprehensively. The connection and difference between them were analyzed from three aspects of data base ,assumptions and scope of application. And the Chain Ladder method as the base model,the structure relationship between the Chain Ladder method and B - F model, S - B model, Payments Per Claim method as well as the Expectation Compensate model were analyzed. Some suggestions are given to choose the reasonable reserve evaluation model in non- life insurance practice, and the empirical analysis was done.

关 键 词：准备金评估 确定性模型 模型结构关系 

分 类 号：F840.65[经济管理—保险]