中国铁矿石消费量与对外依存度预测  

Forecast of China's Iron Ore Consumption and Foreign-Trade Dependence

作　　者：胡振华[1] 钟代立[1] 何晓洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第11期111-115,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD169)

摘　　要：文章基于ARIMA模型对非平稳时间序列良好的短期预测特性,采用该方法对"十三五"期间中国铁矿石消费量与对外依存度进行了模型构建和预测分析,所建模型的拟合效果和预测精度较佳。预测结果表明,"十三五"期间中国铁矿石消费量将趋向于缓慢上升至零增长率的顶点,对外依存度则将在经过高位平台后拐入下降趋势。This paper adopts the ARIMA model, which has a good short-term prediction of non-stationary time series, to make a model and prediction analysis of China＇ s iron ore consumption and foreign-trade dependence during ＂the 13th Five-Year Plan＂ period. The established model has relatively better imitative effect and forecast accuracy. The prediction results show that during ＂the 13th Five-Year Plan＂ period, China＇ s iron ore consumption will slowly rise to the peak with zero growth rate, and that China＇s iron ore foreign-trade dependence will turn to downtrend after passing a high level platform.

关 键 词：“十三五” 铁矿石 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]