供给侧改革下物流需求组合预测技术研究  

Study on integrated forecasting technology in logistics demand under supply side reform

作　　者：吴必善[1] 李士杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]廊坊师范学院管理学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期226-229,共4页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：河北省教育厅人文社会科学重大攻关项目(ZD201604);全国高校;职业院校物流教改教研课题(JZW2017160)

摘　　要：通过分析供给侧结构改革下现代物流市场需求对经济活动的意义,找到单一需求预测技术的偏差,指出指数平滑法和神经网络法于实际预测应用中的不足,提出精确度较高的物流市场需求预测新思路,构建新的组合预测模型。通过实例仿真验证基于神经网络法的组合预测技术在物流市场需求预测中的实际价值。Through the analysis of the significance of modem logistics market demand on economic activities under the supply side structure reform, the deviation of single demand forecasting technology is reflected. The lack of exponential smoothing method and neural network method in the actual forecast application is pointed out. A thread of logistics market demand forecasting with high precision is proposed. The new combination forecasting model is built. The actual value of the combined forecasting technology is verified by the example simulation based on neural network in the forecast of logistics market demand.

关 键 词：供给侧 组合预测法 神经网络 激活函数 物流需求 预测模型 

分 类 号：U116[交通运输工程]