中国城镇化对碳排放的影响研究:基于居民消费的视角  

Reaserch on the Effects of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions:From the perspective of residential consumption

作　　者：黄芳[1] 卢愿清[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第12期84-91,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目:我国碳排放强度;影响因素与减排潜力研究(13BGL111);江苏省人才强省研究基地开放课题(SKRC201400-9)

摘　　要：将城镇化、居民消费和碳排放视作碳排放系统中的一个子系统进行深入研究,分析了三者之间的作用机理并提出了四个假设.运用1978-2013年的时间序列数据进行了实证研究,结果表明:城镇化和居民消费均是碳排放的Granger原因;城镇化并不直接产生碳排放,并且对居民消费与碳排放的关系不具有调节作用;城镇化通过影响居民消费而影响碳排放.针对分析结果,探讨了有序推进中国城镇化发展和生态文明建设的应对之策.This paper has taken the system of urbanization--residential consumption-- carbon emissions as a sub-system of carbon emissions system. The interaction mechanism among three factors of this sub-system has been analyzed and four hypotheses have been pro- posed. Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2013, empirical study has been adopted to test the hypotheses. The results show that residential consumption and urbanization have been tested as the Granger factors of carbon emissions. Urbanization does not cause carbon emissions directly, and it has no moderating effects on the relationship between residential con- sumption and carbon emissions. Urbanization affects carbon emissions through the mediator of residential consumption. According to the researching results, corresponding suggestions have been advanced.

关 键 词：城镇化 居民消费 碳排放 中介效应 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F299.21[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X22