基于网络媒体信息的传染病传播模型及其仿真研究  

The Epidemic Model and Its Simulation Based on the Internet Media Information

作　　者：陈业华[1] 白静[1] 李兴源[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年第13期176-185,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171174);河北省自然科学基金(G2014203219)

摘　　要：当一种突发传染病开始流行时,政府、媒体会以各种形式告知民众,有防范意识的民众将采取一定的防范措施来降低感染率.考虑面对一种突发传染病,将易感群体划分为具有防范意识和不具有防范意识两种群体,利用生命周期理论,分析网络媒体信息报道对传染病传播的影响,以此为依据建立一种改进的传染病传播模型(MSI).利用网络大数据得到对传染病有防范意识群体的观测值信息,利用神经网络技术对模型MSI的参数进行反演.然后对模型MSI数值仿真得到传染病传播过程,提出了相应的控制措施.When the epidemic Occurs, the government, media will inform the public in various forms, the public with awareness will take certain precautions to reduce infection rates. Facing the outbreak of epidemic, groups are considered, by means of the life-cycle theory, of conscious and unconscious of prevention analyzing the influence of internet media, an improved model （MSI） of epidemic spreading is ~tablished, the observation of group with prevention conscious is obtained taking advantage of big data, parameters of MSI model are inverted with the help of neural network technology. And the spread of epidemic process is simulated, and relevant control measure is proposed.

关 键 词：生命周期 MSI模型 大数据 神经网络 参数反演 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]