基于德尔菲调查和聚类分析的关键共性技术预见研究——以山西省新材料行业为例  

Critical Common Technique Foresight Research Based on Delphi Survey and Cluster Analysis——Taking New Material Industry in Shanxi Province as an Example

作　　者：张乔木 

机构地区：[1]太原市生产力促进中心,山西太原030009

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2017年第13期121-124,共4页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：通过技术预见对技术项目进行评价选择,从而选定具有最大经济与社会效益的关键共性技术。在分析国内外学者关于技术预见研究工作的基础上,构建山西省新材料行业关键共性技术预见的指标体系,对49项备选技术进行三轮德尔菲调查,然后运用因子分析法对评价指标进行分析得到因子得分,进而运用聚类分析的方法对因子得分进行分析。It evaluates and chooses a technique project through predictive technique research, in order to locate the critical common technique with the best economy and society efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and achieve the purpose of improving the comprehensive competitiveness of the region or industry.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars about the research work of the technique Foresight,this article constructed the index system of critical common technique foresight of new material industry in Shanxi Province,gave three rounds of Delphi survey on 49 optional techniques, got factor score by analyzing the evaluation index with factor analysis method,and then analyzed the factor score with cluster analysis method. The results showed that the 49 optional techniques were sorted into three levels： in the first level, the techniques have high promotion for regional development and market demand of the technique, and are of great importance and feasibility to the technology development; in the second level, the index of energy saving and emission reduction is high,but the cost on marketizationis also high in the meanwhile; in the third level, although the techniques have some advantages in marketization cost and other aspects, the indexes of other social and economic aspects are relatively low.

关 键 词：技术预见 德尔菲 因子分析 聚类分析 新材料 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] F426.7[经济管理—国民经济]