灾难风险理论的最新研究进展:基于宏观经济的视角  

The Latest Development of Disaster Risk Theory in Economy Fields

作　　者：晁江锋 

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院会计学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第3期137-143,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603243);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJC790111)

摘　　要：自1950-1960年代以来,灾难风险理论的相关研究开始兴起,研究对象从最初的单一自然灾害和人为灾害逐渐过渡为构建一般均衡模型和线性模型,进而通过数值模拟预测灾难性事件对整体宏观经济的动态影响。次贷危机以来,该理论的研究进入一个新的阶段,研究对象不再局限于具体的灾难性事件,而是重点考察代表性个体对历史已发生灾难性事件的心理预期(灾难性预期),这种预期因素在宏观经济和资本市场中对投资者及厂商的心理波动产生显著影响。该文在前人研究成果的基础上,分别从灾难性事件与宏观经济、灾难性预期与宏观经济及灾难性预期与资本市场三个维度探讨灾难风险理论在宏观经济与金融领域的最近研究进展,以期为未来的相关研究提供有用的参考。Since the 1950＇s and 1960＇s, many scholars began to research the impact of rare disaster event on macroeconomic. The initial research objects focused on single natural disaster and man - made disaster. Some times later, the research began to build general equilibrium models and linear models, and predicted the impact of rare disaster events on the whole macro economy based on the numerical simulation method. Since the subprime crisis, the related research of disaster risk theory got rapid progress. The research object is no longer limited to the specific catastrophic events, but focuses on the representative individual psychological expectations of disaster events in his- tory. The expectations have a significant impact on the investors and manufacturers＇ psychological fluctuations in the macro economy and capital market. On the basis of predecessors＇ research results, we discuss the recent research progress from three aspects of disaster and macro economy, disaster risk and macro economy, disaster risk and cap- ital market respectively, in order to provide useful reference for future related research.

关 键 词：灾难风险 宏观经济 资本市场 真实经济周期 股权溢价之谜 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] E32[军事—军事理论]