中国白酒上市公司业绩分析与预测  

Performance Analysis and Prediction of Listed Chinese Liquor Companies

作　　者：杨柳[1] 张雪彬[1] YANG Liu ZHANG Xuebin(Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences, Chengdu 610071, Sichuan, China)

机构地区：[1]四川省社会科学院,四川成都610071

出　　处：《酿酒》2017年第4期4-13,共10页Liquor Making

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学规划重点项目"新常态下传统产业转型升级研究"(SC15A020);四川省哲学社会科学研究基地"川酒发展研究中心"委托课题"中国原酒要素品牌研究"

摘　　要：经过一段时间的深度调整之后,我国白酒行业逐步适应了市场消费的"新常态",实现了弱势回暖,行业景气度逐步回升。但是,由于国际环境不确定性以及我国经济环境下滑的压力,未来白酒行业将如何发展仍存在很多不确定性。以我国19家白酒上市公司为研究对象,利用因子分析方法得出白酒上市公司的综合竞争力排名,并通过对2015、2016年因子分析结果的比较得出结论,提出白酒企业要从产业性并购、多元化经营、创新型发展、精细化管理这几方面继续努力,以此来促进企业的发展。After deep adjustment for a period of time, China＇s liquor industry gradually adapts to the market consumption of the ＂new normal＂ and rallies. However, due to the uncertainty of the international environment and the pressure of China＇s economic downturn, there are still lots of uncertainties in the future development of liquor industry. In this paper, 19 listed Chinese liquor enterprises are targeted. The ranking of comprehensive competitiveness was indicated using the factor analysis method. In addition, by comparing the factor analysis results between the year 2015 and 2016, the conclusion that liquor enterprises should make a continuous effects on the industrial mergers and acquisitions, diversification, innovative development, and fine management to promote the enterprises＇ development was made.

关 键 词：白酒 因子分析 业绩预测 

分 类 号：TS262.3[轻工技术与工程—发酵工程] F275.5[轻工技术与工程—食品科学与工程]