基于SEM的双车道公路超车行为安全评价  

Safety evaluation for the overtaking behavior on the two-lane highway based on the structural equation model

作　　者：秦雅琴[1] 张静[1] 贾现广[1] 惠袁媛 崔晨阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2017年第4期1359-1364,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71361016);四川省汽车测控与安全重点实验室开放课题(szjj2014-066)

摘　　要：为提高驾驶人在双车道公路上超车的安全性,基于tau理论适应性分析,提出超车过程中驾驶人不仅根据tau线索估计避碰时间,也利用距离、速度、加速度等判断超车是否安全的试验假设。招募12名受试者,应用驾驶模拟系统试验平台,依据试验假设采集12个与超车行为有关的驾驶行为数据,对其进行无量纲化处理,并利用Bootstrap法对数据进行扩增。结合驾驶行为问卷得分,利用AMOS软件,建立超车行为安全评价的结构方程模型。通过对初始假设模型进行多次修正与评价,得到影响超车行为安全的3个驾驶行为参数。结果表明,超车车辆在超车并道后的速度、与前导车之间的避碰时间及与对向车辆之间的避碰时间这3个驾驶行为参数可作为超车行为安全评价的有效指标。To improve the drivers＇ overtaking safety in the twolane highway,the present paper is inclined to suppose that in the process of overtaking,the drivers should not only estimate the time to collision（ TTC） on a basis of tau clue,but also take the advantages of the distance,speed,acceleration and determine whether it is safe to overtake the other vehicles based on the theory of tau adaptability analysis and choice of acceleration and other parameters. It is just on the above said hypothesis that we have made a driving simulated experiment in hoping to acquire the 12 driving behavior parameters related to the aforementioned overtaking behaviors. For further data analysis,it would be necessary to divide the driving behavior into 12 subjective parameters to be recorded in the experiment process while doing the dimensionless pretreatment and expanded by the bootstrap method in advance,so as to establish a structural equation model（ SEM） of overtaking safety with the help of the scores of driving behavior questionnaire based on AMOS. And,next,it would be possible to de-rive the three observed variables that may affect and represent the overtaking safety by using the multiple modification and evaluation of the initial assumption model. The results of our simulation and experiment indicate that（ 1） The overtaking behavior safety can be worked out by the following 3 effective indicators,that is,the time for completing the merge,the speed of the overtaking vehicle,the time for collision with the leading vehicle,with the time of collision with the oncoming vehicle;（ 2） The speed of the overtaking vehicle should be more in charge of the overtaking behavior,for its overtaking speed serves as the dominant factor influencing the traffic safety. What is more,as compared with the time for the likely collision with the oncoming vehicle and the time for collision,the driving speed of the leading vehicle indicates and proves to be more affecting the driving transportation safety;（ 3） When the merging action is o

关 键 词：安全管理工程 超车行为 结构方程模型 驾驶模拟器 避碰时间 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]