基于模糊综合评价的电网风险评估分级  

Power grid risks assessment and classification based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

作　　者：刘明顺 赵立进 黄良 林成 苏华英 龙志君[3] 刘阳[3] 张思颖 张晓伟[3] LIU Mingshun ZHAO Lijin HUANG Liang LIN Cheng SU Huaying LONG Zhijun LIU Yang ZHANG Siying ZHANG Xiaowei(Power Distribution and Control Center, Guizhou Power Grid Co. ,Ltd. , Guiyang 550002, China Guizhou Electric Power Research Institute, Guizhou Power Grid Co. ,Ltd. , Guiyang 550002, China School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

机构地区：[1]贵州电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,贵州贵阳550002 [3]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2017年第5期733-737,800,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(编号:GZ2014-2-0049)

摘　　要：电网风险包含事故发生的概率与后果严重度两个方面.在后果严重度方面,基于内点法建立了交流潮流的最优负荷削减量模型,定义了失负荷量严重度指标,应用模糊数学隶属度函数划分后果严重度等级;在故障概率方面,利用模糊C均值聚类实现模糊划分,基于模糊综合评价法构建电网风险模糊评价向量,最终按照最大隶属度原则输出电网风险等级.以IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统为例进行仿真计算,结果表明该方法能够准确有效地评估不同故障事故下的电网风险水平,辨识出系统关键环节,为差异化运维策略提供基础.Power system risk includes two aspects： the probability of the accident and the severity of the consequences. In terms of consequence severity, the AC optimal load shedding model is established based on the interior point method; the amount of load loss severity index is defined and consequence severity is ranked according to membership function. In the aspect of failure rate, fuzzy C means clustering is used to realize fuzzy partitioning; and the fuzzy evaluation vector is constructed based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, according to the maximum membership principle, power system risk level is output. Taking the IEEE-RTS79 reliability test system as an example, the results show that the proposed method can evaluate the power grid risk level accurately and effectively under different faults, identify key link of the system and provide a theoretical basis for the differentiation operation and maintenance.

关 键 词：内点法 模糊聚类 模糊综合评价 电网风险 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]