全面二孩政策下人口结构对经济发展影响研究  

A Study on the Effects of Population Structure on Economic Development Under the Universal Two-child Policy

作　　者：韩林峄 吴晟[1] 周海河[1] 刘英莉[1] 崔庆发 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学信息工程与自动化学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《软件》2017年第10期124-129,共6页Software

摘　　要：自2016年起,我国正式实施全面二孩政策。为了评估在二孩政策下人口结构对经济发展的影响。本文首先基于Leslie模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型,进行人口数量及结构预测。其次对人口结构和人均GDP进行单位根检验以及协整检验,再进行因果分析。最后将2017-2030年实施全面二孩政策下的人口结构与不实施全面二孩政策下的人口结构对比,并使用因果分析进行综合评价。实验结果表明,劳动力人口与城镇人口比重对经济发展影响可信度分别为0.68和0.60,结果可信度较高。实施二孩政策之后劳动力人口与城镇人口比重均大于实施二孩政策之前的比重。得出结论:在二孩政策的影响下,2017-2030年,我国经济会有所提升。China officially implemented the universal two-child policy since 2016. In order to assess the impact of demographic structure on economic development under the universal two-child policy. This paper is based on the Leslie model and the GM （1,1） model, and forecast the population and structure. And then doing unit root test and co-integration test about the population structure and per capita GDP, and on this basis for causal analysis. Finally, this paper compared between the population structure under the universal two-child policy and not the policy in 2017-2030, and causal analysis is used for comprehensive evaluation. The experimental results show that the credi-bility of the labor force population and the proportion of urban population have the influence are 0.68 and 0.60 in economic development. Moreover, the proportion of the labor force population and the urban population after the implementation of the universal two-child policy is greater than that before the implementation of the universal two-child policy. Concluded that under the influence of the universal two-child policy, China＇s economy will be im-proved from 2017 to 2030.

关 键 词：全面二孩 Leslie模型 GM(1 1)模型 因果关系检验 

分 类 号：TP391.4[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]