市场信息对中国与欧盟猪肉价格波动的影响  

Influence of Market Information on Fluctuation of Pork Price in China and European Union

作　　者：白华艳 谭砚文[1] 曾华盛[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第6期70-78,共9页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然基金项目"我国猪肉与蔬菜价格剧烈波动的稳健机制研究"(71373087)

摘　　要：市场信息是商品价格形成的基础。基于"信息经济学"理论,运用TARCH和EGARCH模型,探讨中国和欧盟猪肉市场信息对价格波动产生的不同影响。结果表明:中国猪肉市场存在明显的信息不对称效应,使猪肉价格上涨的"正向信息"大于使猪肉价格下跌"负向信息"的影响,且"正向信息"对于猪肉价格的波动具有强化作用;欧盟猪肉市场"负向信息"大于"正向信息"的影响,且不存在显著的信息冲击不对称效应,其原因在于欧盟市场的政策干预少,价格"杠杆效应"不明显。因此,中国政府有关部门应减少干预,进一步提高猪肉市场的透明度。Market information is the foundation of commodity prices.Based on'information economics',this paper studies the impact of information in China and EU on the price fluctuations of pork price by using TARCH model and EGARCH model.The reuslt shows that an obvious information asymmetric effects exist in China’s pork market,the effect of the positive information is greater than that of negative information,and positive information can increase the fluctuations of pork price.While in EU market,the influence of the negative information is greater than that of positive information and there is no significant impact of asymmetric information effects.The reason is that the EU market has less policy intervention,the price'leverage effect'is not obvious.Therefore,Chinese government should reduce market intervention,and improve the transparency of the pork market.

关 键 词：猪肉价格波动 信息非对称效应 TARCH模型 EGARCH模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]