新能源汽车目标用户消费行为与制造商经营行为互动过程分析——基于“领先”和“跟随”两类用户的实验模拟  

The Analysis of Interaction Process between Targeted Customers' Consumption Behaviors and Manufacturers' Operation Behaviors of New Energy Vehicles:Based on the Experimental Simulation of Two Kinds of Customers,'Lead User' and 'Follower'

作　　者：熊勇清[1] 何舒萍 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2017年第11期61-70,共10页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473276;71173243)

摘　　要：新能源汽车用户群体目前主要属于"领先"用户,伴随着"领先"用户的率先进入,普通大众"跟随"用户将逐步进入。将蒙特卡洛模拟和logistic模型应用到新能源汽车目标用户与制造商的互动行为分析中,结果表明,制造商在"领先"用户市场中表现为"两极分化"的竞争格局,在"跟随"用户市场则表现为"一超多强"的竞争格局。"领先"用户增长先快后慢,"跟随"用户增长先慢后快。制造商的研发投入在促进"领先"用户购买意愿中更为有效,营销投入则在促进"跟随"用户购买意愿中更为有效。新能源汽车制造商应根据两类用户群体的消费特点动态调整经营决策,在新能源汽车产业培育初期,制造商要把发展重点放在技术创新、产品创新等方面,通过新技术、新产品引领新能源汽车消费的新观念、新趋势;在新能源汽车产业培育中后期,制造商要把发展重点放在商业模式创新上,通过降低产品成本、优化产品性能等方式满足大众消费群体需求并不断壮大市场。The customer group of new energy vehicle, as a kind of typical emerging product, consists of lead users at present. With lead users＇ taking the lead in purchases, normal public followers will enter into the market gradually. Monte Carlo method and Logistic model are introduced in the behavior analysis of interaction between targeted customers and manufacturers of new energy vehicle. The results show that manufacturers＇ competition pattern can be concluded as ＇Polarization structure＇ in lead user market while it changes into ＇only super Power and Multi-great Power＇ in the follower market. The number of lead users grows at a faster speed and then slows down in lead user market while it is an opposite situation in the follower market. The input of research and development exerts a larger impact on the lead users＇ willingness paying for new energy vehicle, while the investment in marketing functions more effectively in the follower market. New energy vehicle manufacturers should adjust their operation strategy dynamically to adapt to the consumption features aimed at two types of customers. In the initial stage of the development of new energy vehicle market, manufacturers should focus on technique and product innovation, and guides new concept and trends through new technique and products. Manufacturers ought to attach great importance on the business model and satisfying the need of followers＇ normal consumption by means of reducing product costs and optimizing the product performance in the mid-late stage, which helps expand the market.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 “领先”用户 “跟随”用户 制造商 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理] F270[经济管理—国民经济]