中国水产品产量与价格互动机制探析  

Interaction Mechanism of Price and Output of China's Aquatic Products

作　　者：刘子飞[1] 孙慧武[1] 韩杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水产科学研究院渔业发展战略研究中心,北京100141

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第12期52-56,64,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项;中国水产科学研究院院级重点项目"基于经济效率与绿色发展的我国主要出口水产品研究";农业部渔业渔政管理局课题"现代渔业建设重大基础性问题研究"阶段性成果

摘　　要：水产品产量与价格是渔业经济系统最重要的两个晴雨表,基于供给与价格紧密关联的基本逻辑,运用时间序列模型实证分析二者间的关系。研究表明,水产品产量波动周期为12个月,且呈现"中间高、两头平"的特征,水产品价格波动周期为12个月,且呈现"两头高、中间低"的特征;长期来看,水产品产量与价格具有稳定均衡关系,当水产品产量变动1%时,价格将增加0.982 3%;短期来看,水产品价格与产量存在偏离均衡,并以0.024 9的速度自我校正;水产品产量与价格相互作用,后者滞后5期对产量仍有显著影响,前者滞后3期对价格仍有显著影响。最后,提出了提升水产品产量与价格之间短期偏离调节能力的未来发展思路。The production and price of aquatic products are two of the most important barometers in the fisheries economic system. Based on the basic logic of close relationship between supply and price, this paper analyzed the relationship between production and price of aquatic products by the time series model. The results showed that, the output of aquatic products had the characteristics of＂high in the middle and two fiat ends＂ with twelve months as a fluctuation cycle, and the price of aquatic products had the characteristics of＂two high ends and low in the middle＂ with twelve months as a fluctuation cycle. In the long-term, there was a stable equilibrium relationship between the production and price of aquatic products, when the production changed by one percent, the price would increase by 0.982 3 percent. In the short-term, there was a deviated equilibrium relationship between the production and price of aquatic products and a self-correcting mechanism with the speed of 0.024 9. The production and price of aquatic products interacted with each other, the latter still had a significant impact on yield with five period lag, and the former still had a significant impact on price with three period lag. Finally, some future development ideas were put forward for improving the short-term deviation adjustment ability between the production and price of aquatic products.

关 键 词：水产品 产量 价格 波动周期 长期趋势 互动机制 格兰杰因果关系检验 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F326.4