运用马尔可夫模型对病房医生职称结构的预测研究  

Study on Predicting Physician Professional Structure at Hospital Wards by Using Markov Model

作　　者：范欣欣[1] 杨益兰[1] 庞树[1] 陆薇薇[1] 吴路露 

机构地区：[1]宁波市第二医院

出　　处：《医院管理论坛》2017年第12期59-61,共3页Hospital Management Forum

摘　　要：目的探索马尔可夫模型在医疗人员职称结构预测中的适用性,应用该模型对医生队伍可能出现的状态进行预测。方法基于宁波市某三甲医院2012-2016年医生职称晋升情况相关资料,建立马尔可夫模型,并对2017-2019年的聘任情况进行预测。结果高级职称人数将逐年增加,中级职称的数量变化不明显,住院医师的数量会在2019年有所下降。结论应用马尔可夫模型预测医生的梯队结构是将医生的职称聘任与外部流动归结为一种概率统计和概率预测问题,预测结果可以为医疗人才的引进与留用以及职称评定政策的制定提供数据支持,为管理者制定人才梯队建设方案提供量化依据。Objective To explore the applicability of Markov model in predicting the professional title structure of medical staff, and to predict the possible situation of the professional tile structure of physicians. Method In this study, the data of professional title promotion among the physicians of a Class A tertiary hospital in Ningbo from 2012 to 2016 were used to build the Markov model. And the professional title structure of physicians of 2017-2019 was predicted according to the model. Results From 2017-2019, number of physicians of senior title would increase year by year. The number of physicians of middle title would keep steady. The number of residents would decrease in 2019. Conclusion Using Markov model to predict the professional title structure of physician means taking the employment and flow of physicians of different titles as the issue of probability statistics and prediction. The prediction results can provide evidence for the talents＂ introduction and retention, professional title evaluation policy making, and talents＂ echelon construction plan for the managers.

关 键 词：马尔可夫模型 医生 职称晋升 

分 类 号：R912[医药卫生—药学]