我国一二三线城市房价互动机制研究  

Interactive Analysis on Housing Prices of First-tier,second-tier and third-tier cities in China

作　　者：张璋[1] 周海川[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学生物化学工程学院,100023 [2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,100091

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2018年第1期74-83,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目:“我国粮食价格波动与政府调控政策研究”(批准编号:14CJY051);北京市社科基金项目:“京郊农村土地流转过程中的农民权益保障研究”(批准编号:16SRC024);北京市优秀人才青年骨干个人项目:“北京市城乡土地市场一体化进程中的农民土地权益保障研究”(批准编号:2014000020124G068);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目:“北极航线开通对中国林业产业升级的影响研究”(批准编号:CAFYBB2017QA020)资助

摘　　要：该文借助持久-暂时模型定量考察我国一二三线城市房价以及一线城市之间的房价互动关系。研究发现：我国一二三线城市房价之间存在互动关系。长期来看,一二线城市房价由自身主导,三线城市的房价受二线城市影响最大。短期来看,三线城市的房价是影响一二三线城市房价短期变动的主要原因。上海对北京、深圳房价的长期变化和短期变化影响最大;上海的房价由自身主导。因此,房地产宏观调控政策应重视城市间房价的互动关系,注意点、面结合,长、短互补,分类调控;对一线城市进行统一调控,并将上海房价置于调控核心。By using Permanent-transitory Model,this paper studies the interactive relationship among the housing prices of first-tier city,second-tier city and third-tier city in China,and the interactive relationship among the housing prices of first-tier cities.The research result indicates that those interaction mechanisms are existed,in the long run,the house prices of first-tier city and second-tier city are dominated by themselves,and the house price of thirdtier city is most affected by the second-tier city.In the short term,the house price of third-tier city is the main reason that affects the short-term changes of the house prices of the first-tier city,second-tier city and third-tier city.Furthermore,Shanghai has the greatest impact on the long-term and short-term changes of house prices of Beijing and Shenzhen,and the house price of Shanghai is dominated by its own.Therefore,the interaction between urban housing prices should be paid attention in the Macro control of real estate prices,combination of point and surface,complementation of long term and short term,regulated and controlled in the different way.At the same time,unified Macro control of first-tier cites should be firmed,and the research on the Macro control of real estate prices of Shanghai should be highlighted.

关 键 词：房价波动 调控政策 持久-暂时模型 互动机制 波纹效应 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]