我国教育财政投入记忆性的实证研究——基于分数布朗运动模型  

An Empirical Study on the Memory of China's Financial Investment in Education:Base on the Fractional Brown Motion Model

作　　者：孙彬[1] 汪栋[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学党校办 [2]南京财经大学公共管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《教育发展研究》2017年第23期42-49,共8页Research in Educational Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"普通高中生均成本标准化测算及其应用--基于教育支出功能分类改革数据的研究"(71704073)的部分成果

摘　　要：2012年我国财政性教育经费占当年GDP比重为4.28%,首次达到并超过教育财政投入4%的战略目标。伴随着我国经济发展步入"新常态",经济下行导致财政收入放缓,给"后4%时代"的教育财政投入带来较大的不确定性。基于分数布朗运动模型,通过Whittle和R/S两种方法对我国历年财政性教育经费的赫斯特指数H进行实证测算。测算结果均显示:"后4%时代"的我国教育财政投入增长具有短记忆性,财政性教育经费在未来不能延续前一阶段增长趋势,教育财政投入4%的"政策红利"已开始逐步消失。In 2012, China＇s financial education funds accounted for 4.28% of the proportion of GDP, for the first time to reach and exceed 4% of the strategic objectives of the financial investment of education. With China＇s economic development into The New Normal, the economic downturn led to a slowdown in revenue, which brings greater uncertainty to the post 4% era of education financial investment. Based on the Fractional Brown motion model, the Hearst index H empirical calculation of the financial education funds in our country over the years is carried out by the Whittle and R/S two methods. The results showed that： ＂the post 4% era＂ of China＇s financial investment in education growth has a short memory, financial education funds cannot continue the growth trend of the previous stage in the future, and the financial investment in education 4% of the dividend policy has begun to gradually disappear.

关 键 词：教育财政投入 记忆性 分数布朗运动 

分 类 号：G526.7[文化科学—教育学]