高校社会安全类突发事件情景演化的系统动力学研究  

System dynamics research on scenario evolution of social security incidents in universities and colleges

作　　者：陈玉芳 屠兢 唐继平[2] 刘樑[2] CHEN Yufang;JU Jing;TANG Jiping;LIULiang(7 . School of Public Affairs ^University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 ＆P. R. Chin;SoutFwest University of Sciencc and Technology, Mianyyng 627070, P. R. China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学公共事务学院,安徽合肥230026 [2]西南科技大学,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第2期184-196,共13页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"突发核安全事故情景构建和应对的理论与方法研究"(71503215)

摘　　要：社会安全类突发事件具有较强的不可预测性、动态性和信息不完全性,由传统"预测—应对"向"情景—应对"范式转化已成为这类问题应急管理研究的趋势,其基础与关键在于研究情景演化的机理与过程。为此,文章运用多维数组对高校社会安全类突发事件进行结构化描述,分析情景演化的驱动要素、内在机理及外显方式,并以高校某社会安全类突发事件为例,运用系统动力学仿真技术与方法构建情景演化模型,对多情景下社会安全类突发事件发展演化的状态展开深入研究。研究表明:高校社会安全类突发事件具有较强的情景依赖性,突发事件的情景主体间、情景要素间、情景链各元素之间存在的强关联形成不同的情景演化基本态势,提出了高校应对社会安全类突发事件的合理化建议,为构建突发事件应急准备体系提供了理论支持。Witli strong unpredictability, social security incidents have been inefectively managed byconventional prediction methods. The “scenario - response” model has become an effective method of emergency management dealing with social security incidents in universities and colleges. Therefore, it is of importance to study the mechanism and process of scenario evolution. In this paper, the authors conductedstructural description on emergencies ’ framework based on multidimensional arrays, analyzed the dynamicfactors, internal mechanism and explicit mode of the scenario evolution, and thstatus and result of scenario evolution and development of the social security incidents in universities andcolleges under multi-scenes with the example of a certain group conflict. The research showed that： social security incidents in colleges and universities are strongly situation-dependent. The strong correlations between various scenario subjects, scenario elements and scenario chains of different incidents form different scenario evolution. The paper put forward rational proposal for universities and colleges to resjond to social security incidents, and provided theoretical support for the construction of emergency preparedness system for incidents.

关 键 词：高校 社会安全类突发事件 应急管理 情景演化 系统动力学 

分 类 号：G647[文化科学—高等教育学]