基于时间序列模型的舰炮武器系统动态精度评估方法  

Dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for shipboard artillery weapon system based on timing series modelling theories

作　　者：刘德耀[1] 韩旭[2] 普仕凡[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军92941部队 [2]中国人民解放军91550部队

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报》2018年第1期18-25,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了解决舰炮武器系统动态精度试验鉴定中长期存在的数据处理理论依据不足及方法不当问题,提出了一套基于时间序列模型的舰炮武器系统动态精度评估方法。分析了当前舰炮武器系统动态精度数据处理方法的现状与不足;给出了应用时间序列模型对舰炮武器系统动态误差数据进行建模分析的基本思路。在对自回归滑动平均(Autoregressive moving average,ARMA)/差分自回归滑动平均(Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)建模方法和自回归条件异方差(Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity,ARCH)系列建模方法的相关理论、方法进行深入探讨的基础上,提出了应用ARIMA和广义自回归条件异方差(Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity,GARCH)模型方法实现动态精度评估的具体算法。以某型舰炮武器系统实测高低角动态误差的分析处理为例,给出了应用时间序列模型方法进行舰炮武器系统动态精度评估的具体实现过程。模型与实际数据的对比分析结果表明,该文提出的方法是可行的,可为有效解决舰炮武器系统动态精度试验鉴定的相关难题提供参考。To solve the issues of the defected theory basis and the distorted processing methods in dynamic accuracy test evaluation fields for data processing of current shipboard artillery weapon system,one dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for shipboard artillery weapon system based ontiming series modeling theories is brought forward.Firstly,the current situation of the dynamic accuracy data processing methods in the shipboard artillery weapon systems is introduced,with corresponding problems discussed. The basic ideas of modeling and analyzing dynamic error series sampled from the shipboard artillery weapon system with timing series modeling theories are presented. On the basis of deeply researching on ARMA（ Autoregressive moving average）/ARIMA（ Autoregressive integrated moving average） modeling methods and ARCH（ Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity）series modeling methods,the detailed algorithm of dynamic accuracy evaluation by ARIMA and GARCH（ Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity） ways is presented.Taking the data analysis and process on practical angular altitude dynamic error series of the shipboard artillery weapon system as an example,the detailed running procedures of using dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for the shipboard artillery weapon system based on timing series modeling theories in the paper are presented.Comparison and analysis results on the model and practical data show that the approaches brought forward in the paper are feasible,and can be taken as an effective way to solve the corresponding issues in the dynamic accuracy test and evaluation fields of the shipboard artillery weapon systems.

关 键 词：时间序列 舰炮武器系统 动态精度 自回归滑动平均 差分自回归滑动平均 广义自回归条件异方差 

分 类 号：TJ391[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程] TP933.3[自动化与计算机技术]