结合台风模拟混合气候下分风向极值风速估计方法  

Estimating Directional Extreme Wind Speeds in Mixed Climates Combined with Typhoon

作　　者：全涌[1] 张秉超 顾明[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期188-194,共7页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51278367)

摘　　要：采用Monte Carlo方法分别获取台风和良态风气候的极值风速样本.其中,台风气候极值风速采用Yan Meng台风模型进行模拟,而良态风气候则是对气象站风速数据拟合极值分布后再模拟一定数量的极值数据,然后对两者进行组合.最后,结合风速风向分布模型提出一种考虑风向的极值风速估计方法.利用该方法对上海地区极值风速设计值进行了估算,并讨论了其特性.模拟结果不仅同时展现台风和良态风两种气候的极值分布形态,还表明了受台风影响的地区各个风向上极值风速具有一定程度的相关性.Samples of extreme wind speeds of typhoon climate and normal climate were separately obtained with the Monte Carlo Method. For the typhoon climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds were simulated with the typhoon wind field model established by Yan Meng. For the normal climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds were simulated with the distribution function fitted from the wind observation data. Then, a new method of estimating the directional extreme wind speeds was proposed. The results of the estimated extreme wind speeds were presented and discussed on the basis of a case study of Shanghai. The results revealed the distribution of extreme wind speeds and the reasonable transition between these climates. The correlation among the extreme wind speeds in different directions was also found in the mixed climate.

关 键 词：混合气候 方向性 极值风速 台风模拟 相关性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]