“全面二孩”政策下我国高等教育普及化进程  

Process of Universal Higher Education Under the Two-Child Policy in China

作　　者：李硕豪[1] 耿乐乐[2] 富阳丽 LI Shuohao;GENG Lele;FU Yangli(The Center of Higher Education Research, Lanzhou University, Gansu 730000, China;School of Management, Lanzhou University, Gansu 730000, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学高等教育研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《开放教育研究》2018年第3期85-93,共9页Open Education Research

基　　金：国家社科基金教育学一般课题"‘基础学科拔尖学生培养试验计划’形成性绩效评价研究"(BIA170203)

摘　　要："全面二孩"政策的实施可能会影响未来我国高等教育适龄人口,影响高等教育普及化进程。为了预测我国中长期高等教育的适龄人口、毛入学率、在校生数的变化趋势,以及高等教育普及化进程,文章基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,运用王广州开发的中国人口预测系统(CPPS)对2017-2040年的高等教育适龄人口进行预测,并基于1990-2016年的高等教育毛入学率,建立高等教育毛入学率Logistic预测模型,依据适龄人口和毛入学率对高等教育在校生数进行估算。研究结果显示,2040年前我国高等教育适龄人口基本呈指数震荡上升趋势;2019年,我国高等教育毛入学率将超过50%,迈入高等教育普及化发展阶段,未来20年将实现从初级普及化到高级普及化的历史性变革,高等教育在校生数将稳步增加。The implementing of Two-Child policy,which was enacted by the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2015,will affect the future school-aged population of higher education and further influence the process of popularizing higher education in China. The purpose of this study is to predict the changing trends of the mid-to long-term school-aged population of higher education,gross enrollment rate,number of students enrolled in higher education,and the process of universal higher education. Based on Chinese 2010 census data,the paper uses the CPPS software developed by Wang Guangzhou to predict the school-aged population of higher education from 2017 to 2040,and establishes a logistic model to predict the gross enrollment rate of higher education based on the gross enrollment rate of higher education from 1990 to 2016. And the number of students enrolled in higher education is estimated based on the age-appropriate population and gross enrolment rate. The final results show that the population of China ＇s school-aged population of higher education will basically show an exponentially increasing trend by 2040. Meanwhile,the gross enrollment rate of higher education in China will exceed 50% in 2019 and it will enter the stage of universal higher education,which will achieve the historical transformation from the primary universalization to advanced universalization in the next 20 years. In addition,the number of students enrolled in higher education will steadily increase in the next 20 years.

关 键 词：“全面二孩” 高等教育普及化 高等教育适龄人口 高等教育毛入学率 高等教育在校生数 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学]