改进温度分量的拱坝变形时空分布模型  

Improved temperature component-based spatio-temporal distribution model for arch dam deformation

作　　者：沈晶鑫 郑东健[1,2] SHEN Jingxin;ZHENG Dongjian(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第5期38-43,共6页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279052;51579085);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室研究项目(20145028312)

摘　　要：通过对混凝土拱坝变形滞后特性的研究,分析了温度效应对坝体位移影响规律,并引入瑞利分布函数建立了改进温度分量的拱坝变形监控统计模型。再通过引入空间坐标,考虑变形值在空间的连续性,建立了改进温度分量的拱坝时空分布模型。由于所建立的监控模型因子较多,因此应用粒子群算法和逐步回归分析法进行参数寻优。最后将所建立的拱坝变形时空分布模型应用于某拱坝变形监控中,结果显示:影响因子的个数减少,复相关系数及剩余标准差均优于传统模型,所建立的模型较传统大坝变形监控模型精度更高、拟合效果更好。Through the study made on the hysteresis behavior of concrete arch dam deformation,the law of the influence from temperature effect on the displacement of the dam body is analyzed,while an arch dam deformation monitoring statistical model with improved temperature component is built up by introducing Rayleigh distribution function. Moreover,an improved temperature component-based spatio-temporal distribution model for arch dam is established through introducing spatial coordinates and considering the spatial continuity of deformation value. Due to more factors,the established monitoring model is parametrically optimized with both particle swarm optimization and stepwise regression analysis. Finally,the established spatio-temporal distribution model for arch dam deformation is applied to the deformation monitoring of an arch dam. The result shows that the number of the influencing factors is reduced,while the multi-correlation coefficient and the root-mean-square error are better than those of the conventional model,thus the accuracy of the established model is higher than that of the conventional dam deformation monitoring model with better fitting effect.

关 键 词：拱坝变形 温度滞后效应 粒子群算法 逐步回归分析 时空分布模型 

分 类 号：TV698.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]