基于三参数Weibull分布的粘性泥石流一次总量计算模型  

A Model of Total Volume of Debris Flow with Intermittent Surges Based on the Weibull Distribution of Three Parameters

作　　者：李俊 陈宁生[2] 赵苑迪 LI Jun;CHEN Ningsheng;ZHAO Yuandi(School of Civil Engineering,Sichuan University of Science ＆ Engineering,Zigong 643000,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川理工学院土木工程学院,四川自贡643000 [2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041

出　　处：《四川理工学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第3期60-67,共8页Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41671112;41661134012)

摘　　要：一次泥石流总量是粘性泥石流稳、拦、排防治工程的重要设计参数,如何提高一次泥石流总量的计算精度,是急需解决的问题。以云南省东川县蒋家沟1987~1996年73场粘性泥石流数据为统计基础,发现三参数Weibull分布适用于描述粘性泥石流阵性流量的分布特征。其次,基于粒子群算法和三参数Weibull分布建立新的粘性泥石流一次总量计算模型,其模型输入参数为泥石流实际调查中较易获取的最大洪峰流量Q_(max)和泥石流运动时间T_S。最后,采用蒋家沟1997~2004年53场粘性泥石流数据验证该模型的适用性,并与已有方法进行比较。结果表明:基于三参数Weibull分布的粘性泥石流一次总量统计模型的相对误差、最大误差、均方根误差,分别为44.24%、89.08%、21.21×10~4m^3,该模型相对误差比陈宁生模型的相对误差低29.62%,比泥石流规范方法的相对误差低105.91%,表明模型可用于确定蒋家沟粘性泥石流一次总量。total volume of debris flow with intermittent surges is an important design parameter for the prevention and control of debris flow. The accurate determination of the total volume of debris flow with intermittent surges is an urgent problem to be solved. First,the distribution of debris flow with intermittent surges was described by the Weibull distribution of three parameters based on the statistical data of 73 debris flows with intermittent surges during 1987-1996 at Jiangjia gully in Dongchuan County,Yunnan Province. Secondly,a statistical model of the total volume of debris flow with intermittent surges is established by the particle swarm optimization algorithm（ PSO） and the Weibull distribution of three parameters. Lastly,the correctness of the new model is verified according to the data of 53 debris flow with intermittent surgesin the Jiangjia gullyduring 1997-2004,and the accuracy of the new model is compared with that of the existing models. The research results are shown as follows. In the new total volume model of debris flow with intermittent surges based on the Weibull distribution of three parameters,the relative error and maximum error and root mean square error are 44. 24% and 89. 08% and 21. 21 ×10~4 m^3,respectively. The relative error of new model is 29. 62% lower than that of a statistical model proposed by Chen Ningsheng. Besides,the relative error of new model is 105. 91% lower than that of a standard method of debris flow. Those indicate that new model can be used to determine the total volume of debris flow with intermittent surgesin Jiangjia gully.

关 键 词：蒋家沟 粘性泥石流 一次泥石流总量 粒子群算法 三参数WEIBULL分布 

分 类 号：TB16[天文地球—地质学]