人口结构和经济增长对碳排放的影响分析  

Study on the Impact of Population Structure and Economic Growth on Carbon Emission

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 王天琦 Zongyi Hu;Tianqi Wang(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《经济数学》2018年第3期1-7,共7页Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(12AJL007)

摘　　要：利用中国30个省级行政单位(暂不包括港澳台地区,下同)2005~2014年的数据,采用动态面板模型,研究人口结构、经济增长对碳排放的影响.研究结果表明,从全国范围来看,人均GDP、劳动年龄人口比率、城市化率、第二产业就业率及对外开放度均对碳排放有显著正向影响,而平均家庭规模会减少碳排放量;从区域来看,人均GDP、劳动年龄人口比率对碳排放产生显著正向影响,其他因素对碳排放的影响程度及方向有较大差异.The dynamic panel model is used to study the effect of population structure and economic growth on carbon emissions by using the data of 30 provincial administrative units in China （Not including data of Hong Kong, Macao and Tai- wan for the time being, the same below）from 2005 to 2014. The results show that, from a national perspective, per capita GDP, working age population ratio, urbanization rate, secondary industry employment rate and the rate of openness have a sig- nificant positive impact on carbon emissions, while the average household size will reduce carbon emissions;From the regional point of view, per capita GDP, working age population ratio has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions; other factors have different influence on the degree and the direction of carbon emissions.

关 键 词：人口 资源与环境经济学 碳排放 动态面板模型 人口结构 经济增长 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]