京津冀地区PM2.5驱动因素灰色关联差异分析  

Grey Relational Difference Analysis of PM2.5 Drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：李云燕[1] 王立华[1] LI Yunyan;WANG Lihua(Institute of Recycling Economy,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国发展》2018年第4期13-25,共13页China Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金研究项目(编号:15BJY059)"基于DPSIR模型框架的京津冀雾霾成因分析及综合治理对策研究";北京市社科基金项目(编号:14JGB036)"京津冀地区雾霾污染控制政府绩效评估模式的构建"

摘　　要：该文通过分析京津冀地区的PM2.5污染特征及细颗粒物组分,梳理PM2.5污染的主要成因。从人口增长、城市化进程、经济发展、能源结构、工业过程、交通运输、建筑行业以及环境保护投资等方面研究了影响该地区PM2.5污染的内在驱动力,应用灰色关联度差异量化分析了京津冀地区PM2.5污染的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明:北京市PM2.5污染主要的污染源类的驱动因素为工业过程、城市化进程、交通运输等,环保投资的加大能够较大程度地减轻PM2.5污染,改善空气质量;天津市主要的驱动因素为工业过程、交通运输、城市化进程,建筑扬尘仍然是天津市雾霾的主要驱动因素之一;河北省PM2.5污染源为工业过程、城市化进程、交通运输、能源结构,燃煤对于PM2.5污染的影响逐年增大。环保投资作为治理大气污染,改善空气质量的重要举措,与PM2.5污染呈现显著的负相关关系。在治理PM2.5污染的过程中,三省市应该打破行政区域的壁垒,改变原来属地治理模式中各自为政的状况,落实PM2.5污染治理的联防联控措施。By analyzing the characteristics of air pollution and the composition of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,this paper summarizes the main causes of PM2.5 pollution.The internal driving force in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei includes population growth,city urbanization,economic development,energy structure,industrial process,transportation,construction industry and environmental protection investment.The application of grey correlation analysis quantitatively compares the difference between Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and provides a theoretical basis for the regional joint prevention and control of PM2.5 pollution.The results show that the PM2.5 pollution driving factors of Beijing mainly include industrial pollution and transportation.The increase of environmental protection investment could improve air quality to a large extent.The main driving factors of Tianjin include industrial pollution and construction dust.The PM2.5 pollution driving factors of Hebei mainly include industrial pollution and energy structure.As an important measure to improve air quality,environmental investment has a high correlation with the degree of PM2.5 pollution.In the process of controlling PM2.5 pollution,this region should break the barriers of administrative area,change the situation of territorial governance mode,and implement joint prevention and control measures of PM2.5 pollution control.

关 键 词：细颗粒物 驱动因素 灰色关联 差异分析 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学]