PP检验对异方差时间序列的伪检验  

Spurious Tests to Heteroscedastic Time Series With PP Test

作　　者：田行宇 李传金 Tian Xingyu;Li Chuanjin(School of Languages and Cultures,Ningde Normal University,Ningde Fujian 352100,China;School of Civil Engineering,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)

机构地区：[1]宁德师范学院语言与文化学院,福建宁德352100 [2]福建工程学院土木工程学院,福州350118

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第17期74-76,共3页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划青年项目(FJ2017C093);福建省自然科学基金高校联合资助面上项目(2018J01620)

摘　　要：文章研究了PP检验是否判别方差突变时间序列的平稳性。通过构造均值方差都不变、均值突变、方差突变、方差递增、方差递减五个时间序列,应用时序图法、自相关图法和PP检验研究了这些序列的平稳性。研究结果表明,对于异方差时间序列,PP检验出现了伪检验。因此,对于异方差序列慎用PP检验,建议将方差突变列入结构突变的范畴。This paper studies whether Phillips-Perron test（PP） identifies the stationarity of time series with variance mutation. By constructing such five time series as mean variance unchanged, mean variance mutation, variance mutation, variance increasing and variance decreasing, the paper uses the method of time series, autocorrelation and PP test to study the stationarity of these sequences. The results show that for time series with heteroscedasticity, the pseudo test appears in PP test. Therefore, PP test should be used with caution for heteroscedasal sequences. It is recommended to include variance mutation in the category of structural mutation.

关 键 词：平稳性 PP检验 异方差 结构突变 伪检验 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]