互通立交分流区交通冲突预测模型  

Model for predicting traffic conflict in interchange diverging area

作　　者：郑展骥 项乔君[1] 李涵[1] 顾欣 ZHENG Zhanji;XIANG Qiaojun;LI Han;GU Xin(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第6期85-90,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG01B01)

摘　　要：互通立交分流区存在频繁的变换车道现象,导致交通流运行紊乱、交通冲突频发。为分析互通分流区交通安全状况,首先分析车头时距及车辆变道位置等交通流特性与交通冲突的关系,然后采用间隙接受理论判别交通冲突区间,构建基于间隙接受理论的分流区交通冲突预测模型。结果表明：车辆变道位置与交通冲突地点存在显著相关性,均位于距基准点600 m以内和减速车道的前60 m路段;交通冲突临界间隙为2.21 s,基于间隙接受理论的交通冲突区间为（2.06 s,2.31 s）;分流区交通冲突预测模型预测结果与实际统计结果的相对误差在10%以下。减速车道长度以及分流比是影响交通冲突数的主要因素,可作为分流区交通安全改善方案的依据。Lanes changing occurrs frequently in freeway interchange diverging area,which leads to the disruption of traffic flow and lots of traffic conflicts. In order to analyze the traffic safety in the diverging area,this study analyzed on the relationship between traffic conflicts and the characteristics of traffic flow such as the headway and vehicle lanes changing zone. The gap acceptance theory was used to judge the traffic conflict interval and to build a traffic conflict predicting model of interchange diverging area. The results show that there is a significant and positive correlation between the lanes changing zone and the traffic conflict point,both of which are located within 600 m from the reference point and the first 60 m of the deceleration lane,that the critical headway of traffic conflict is 2. 21 s and the traffic conflict headway interval based on gap acceptance theory is（ 2. 06 s,2. 31 s）,that the relative error between the result predicted by using the model and the actual statistical results is below 10%,and that the length of deceleration lane and diversion ratio are the main factors affecting the number of traffic conflicts and can provide a sound basis for improving traffic safety in diverging area.

关 键 词：互通立交 分流区 交通冲突预测模型 车辆变道位置 间隙接受理论 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]