GM(1,1)模型在丰县地下水水位预测中的应用研究  

Application of GM( 1,1 ) Model in Prediction of Groundwater Level in Feng County

作　　者：张雯 张双圣 王慧 陆朋飞 万勇智 ZHANG Wen;ZHANG Shuang-sheng;WANG Hui;LU Peng-fei;WAN Yong-zhi(Dingwan River Engineering Management Office,Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province,Xuzhou 221000,China;Xuzhou Urban Water Resources Management Office,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221018,China;Water Resources Bureau,Jiawang District,Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province,Xuzhou,2210011,China;Xuzhou Branch of Jiangsu Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221006)

机构地区：[1]江苏省徐州市丁万河工程管理处,江苏徐州221000 [2]江苏省徐州市城区水资源管理处,江苏徐州221018 [3]江苏省徐州市贾汪区水利局,江苏徐州221011 [4]江苏省水文水资源勘测局徐州分局,江苏徐州221006

出　　处：《地下水》2018年第4期65-67,103,共4页Ground water

摘　　要：灰色GM(1,1)模型是基于灰色系统理论的一种预测方法,具有对历史样本数量要求少、计算简便、验证方便等优点,在诸多领域得到广泛应用。本文建立GM(1,1)模型对江苏省丰县III承压地下水水位埋深进行预测,详细阐述了地下水水位埋深时间序列的GM(1,1)模型的原理和建立过程,根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行检验,并对预测结果进行了分析。结果表明:丰县各水位埋深监测点GM(1,1)数学模型精度均达到I级,预测2018-2020年丰县地下水水位呈现逐年下降趋势,水位降落漏斗将不断扩大。丰县应积极寻求地表水源,在徐州市区域供水一体化形势下尽快启用小沿河地表水,科学合理开发利用地下水资源,保证区域水资源均衡发展。The grey GM （ 1 , 1 ） model is a prediction method based on the gray system theory. It has the advantages of less requirements on the number of historical samples, simple calculation and convenient verification, and is widely used in many fields. This paper establishes the GM （ 1 , 1 ） model to predict the depth of groundwater level in the confined groundwater in Fengxian County, Jiangsu Province. The principle and establishment process of the GM （ 1,1 ） model for the groundwater depth burial time series are elaborated in detail, and the prediction is based on the model. Values and measured values are used to test the accuracy of the model and the prediction results are analyzed. The results show that the accuracy of the mathe- matical model of the GM （ 1,1 ） monitoring point at each water level in Fengxian County reaches Class I. It is predicted that the groundwater level in Fengxian County will decrease year by year from 2018 to 2020, and the water level failing funnel will continue to expand. Fengxian County should actively seek surface water sources, start small surface river water as soon as pos- sible in Xuzhou＇s regional water supply integration situation, scientifically and rationally develop and utilize groundwater re- sources, and ensure the balanced development of regional water resources.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 地下水水位预测 丰县 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]