灰色GM(1,1)模型在南疆五地州负荷预测中的应用  

Application of Grey GM(1,1) model in load forecasting of five states in Southern Xinjiang

作　　者：郭小龙 李渝 孙谊媊 崔永军 GUO Xiao-long;LI Yu;SUN Yi-qian;CUI Yong-jun(State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830017,China)

机构地区：[1]国网新疆电力有限公司,乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2018年第20期28-29,共2页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：以灰色理论GM(1,1)模型为基础,建立中长期电力负荷预测模型,以南疆五地州2005—2017年用电统计量作为样本对模型进行训练与预测分析,仿真结果表明,所建模型的预测准确率较高,对未来南疆五地州电力系统规划有积极作用。Based on the grey theory GM（ 1,1） model,a medium and long-term electric load forecasting model is established. The training and forecasting analysis of the model is carried out by using the 2005-2017 electricity consumption statistics of the five states of southern Xinjiang as the sample. The model has a high prediction accuracy rate and has a positive effect on the future power system planning in the five states of southern Xinjiang.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 中长期负荷预测 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM743