儿童手足口病的数学建模和计算机模拟  

Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation on Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Children

作　　者：李华 刘三红 方奕乐 张兴安[1] Li Hua;Liu Sanhong;Fang Yile;Zhang Xingan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Central China Normal University,Wuhan,430079;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hubei University of Science and Technology,Hubei Xianning 427100;School of Electromechanical and Automation,WuChang ShouYi Unviversity,Wuhan 430064;Xi＇an Changan District No.3 Middle School,Xi＇an 710000)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学数学与统计学学院,武汉430079 [2]西安市长安区第三中学,西安710000 [3]湖北科技学院数学与统计学院,湖北咸宁437100 [4]武昌首义学院机电与自动化学院,武汉430064

出　　处：《数学物理学报（A辑）》2018年第5期1032-1040,共9页Acta Mathematica Scientia

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11371161,11071275);华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费(CCNU16JCZX10);湖北科技学院教学研究基金(2016-XA-008)

摘　　要：手足口病(HFMD)是由肠道病毒引起的传染病,患者主要是少儿,由EV71和CoxA16病毒引起.该文建立了传染病SEIHRS模型,模拟了2012-2016年手足口病患病者的数据,估计了手足口病每年的基本再生数,给出了手足口病少儿疫苗的接种率,预测了2017年手足口病患病者的数目并提出了预防控制策略.该文的结果能为该疾病的预防与控制工作提供理论依据.Hand, foot, and mouth disease （HFMD） is a contagious disease mainly caused by the enterovirus 71 （EV71） and coxsackievirus A 16 （CoxA16）. The infectious of HFMD is mainly children. In this paper, we construct an SEIHRS model, simulate the HFMD data of infectious from 2012 to 2016, estimate the basic reproductive number each year from 2012 to 2016, predict the infectious number of HFMD in year 2017, compute the domain of vaccination rate on children and put forward the preventive measures and control strategy. The results of this paper can provide a theory basis for disease control and prevention of HFMD.

关 键 词：手足口病 基本再生数 数据模拟 EV71疫苗 免疫接种率 

分 类 号：O175.12[理学—数学]