济南市大气污染物O_3与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的时间序列分析  

Association betw een ambient ozone and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan,China: a time series analysis

作　　者：曹若明[1] 崔亮亮[2] 姜超 景一鸣 周林[4] 张琳 刘守钦[1] CAO Ruoming;CUI Liangliang;JIANG Chao;JING Yiming;ZHOU Lin;ZHANG Lin;LIU Shouqin(Office of Public Health Services,Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250021,Shandong,China;Department of Environmental Health,Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250021,Shandong,China;Shizhong District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250022,Shandong,China;Non-Communicable Chronic Disease Branch,Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250021,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心业务管理办公室,山东济南250021 [2]济南市疾病预防控制中心环境健康所,山东济南250021 [3]济南市市中区疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250022 [4]济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,山东济南250021

出　　处：《山东大学学报（医学版）》2018年第11期91-97,共7页Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2015WS0435;2016WSA01078)

摘　　要：目的探讨济南市大气污染物O_3对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的急性影响。方法收集2013～2015年济南市逐日空气污染物、气象资料和居民呼吸系统疾病死因数据,控制长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、星期几效应(DOW)、节假日效应(Holiday)和集中供暖效应(Warm-heating)等混杂因素,采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM)进行分析,计算O_3浓度每升高10μg/m^3,呼吸系统疾病死亡率增加的ER及95%CI。敏感性分析实施双污染物模型(O_3+PM_(2.5)、O_3+SO_2、O_3+NO_2)和多污染物模型(O_3+PM_(2.5)+SO_2+NO_2)拟合。同时进一步对性别、年龄进行分层分析。结果 2013～2015年济南市O_3日均浓度为102μg/m^3、日均呼吸系统疾病死亡人数为8人。O_3浓度每升高10μg/m^3,居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险在lag3和lag05时达到最高,分别增加0. 95%(95%CI:0. 28%～1. 63%)和1. 70%(95%CI:0. 27%～3. 16%)。男性和女性的ER值差别不大,但65岁以上人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险显著增加。结论济南市大气污染物O_3对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险具有显著急性影响,65岁以上老人更为敏感。Objective To investigate the association between ambient ozone（ O3） and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan City. Methods The daily information of air pollutants,meteorological indicators and mortality of respiratory diseases during 2013 and 2015 was collected. The association between daily O3 and mortality of respiratory diseases was evaluated with general linear model（ GLM） based on Quasi-Poisson regression. Confounding factors of the seasonalpatterns,long-term trends,meteorological factors,day of the week（ DOW） effect,holiday effect and warm-heating effect were controlled. Excess risk（ ER） and 95% confidence interval（ 95% CI） of the mortality of respiratory diseases were calculated based on a 10 μg/m^3 increase in O3 concentration. Sensitive analysis was conducted,including dualpollutant model（ O3＋ PM2.5,O3＋ SO2,O3＋ NO2） and multi-pollutant model（ O3＋ PM2.5＋ SO2＋ NO2）. A further analysis was conducted based on gender and age group stratification. Results The daily average concentration of O3 was 102μg/m^3,and 8 persons died of respiratory diseases daily. Overall,with 10 μg/m3 increase in the concentration of O3,the ERs for mortality of respiratory diseases were 0. 95%（ 95% CI： 0. 28%-1. 63%） and 1. 70%（ 95% CI： 0. 27%-3.16%） in lag3 and lag05,respectively. There was no statistical difference in ER between male and female,but a significantly higher ER was observed in persons aged ≥65 years. Conclusion There is a positive association between daily O3 and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan,especially among people who are above 65 years old.

关 键 词：臭氧 呼吸系统疾病 死亡率 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R574[医药卫生—消化系统]