基于AHP和BP神经网络的旅游综合体评价研究  

Research on Tourism Complex Evaluation Based on AHP & BP Neural Network

作　　者：郭伟[1] 董雪 张鑫 GUO Wei;DONG Xue;ZHANG Xin(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《燕山大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第6期61-69,共9页Journal of Yanshan University:Philosophy and Social Science

基　　金：河北省社科基金项目"高铁联网时代京津冀旅游效率分析及河北省创新提升路径研究"(HB18YJ071)

摘　　要：随着旅游消费水平的提升与消费观念的转变,旅游综合体作为集观光、休闲、度假、演艺、运动、商务、居住等多种功能于一体的旅游休闲新业态应运而生,并在全国范围内迅速扩张。对旅游综合体发展水平进行评价,探索其科学发展路径,对其本身及整个区域旅游发展具有重要意义。文章基于系统学理论,从旅游核心吸引物、旅游接待企业、旅游市场、旅游保障四个子系统构建旅游综合体评价体系。通过层次分析法确定各层次指标权重,设计BP神经网络模型,将层次分析法结果作为训练样本,发现旅游综合体发展规律,实现对旅游综合体发展水平的随时监测,科学引导旅游综合体发展。以东部华侨城为例,将其发展阶段划分为发展水平较低、发展水平较高、发展水平高三个阶段。最后,针对不同发展阶段从四个子系统出发提出发展策略,为东部华侨城及其他旅游综合体发展提供借鉴。It is of great significance both to itself and the whole regional tourism to evaluate the development of the tourism complex, a newly born multipurpose tourism and leisure industry, and explore its growing path. Based on the Systems Theory, this paper firstly demonstrates a tourism complex evaluation system by four sub-systems, namely tourism core attraction, tourism reception enterprises, tourism markets and tourism guarantee. The procedures are as follows： the weight of indicators is given at each level by Analytic Hierarchy Process（ AHP）, then a BP neural network model is designed, and the results of AHP are used as a training sample. This paper uncovers the laws governing the development of tourism complexes, thus real- time monitoring the development of tourism complexes, and rationally directing tourism complexes. Taking the OCT East tourism complex as an example, this paper sees three stages in OCT East： low level of develop- ment, relatively high level of development, and high level of development. Finally, the paper proposes strategies based on four subsystems in different development stages, hoping provide reference for the development of OCT East and other tourism complexes.

关 键 词：BP神经网络 层次分析法 旅游综合体 东部华侨城 

分 类 号：F272.92[经济管理—企业管理]